Security, Stability, Opportunity. Don’t Depose Cameron.

With polls showing a tightening race between the IN and OUT camps David Cameron’s future is already being debated. There has always been a cabal of backbench vultures who have disliked Cameron and his project of modernization who it appears are seeking to use the referendum result, whatever it may be, to finally unseat him after eleven years as leader.

Should David Cameron leave office in the event of #BREXIT? here are my views.

  1. In the event of a vote to leave Article 50 would be invoked leading to a 2 year long negotiation of the terms of Britain’s new relationship. Once the terms of Brexit had been agreed our relationship with the remainder of the EU would switch from being a political one to a purely trading one. It is sensible to expect that this process might create some short term instability that would benefit from the steady hand of a tried and tested leader.

  2. Cameron is already one of the worlds longest serving democratically elected leaders with six years as Prime Minister and a further four and a half as leader of the Opposition. He knows the game and would be the best placed individual to lead the negotiations in Brussels. Cameron may like the EU but he loves his country more and knows the exit deal between the EU and UK would be the absolute cornerstone of his legacy. Boris may have a brilliant mind but he lacks experience on the world stage. What the country wouldn’t need is for Cameron to start negotiations only to be replaced after a leadership election a few months in or for Cameron to step down, George Osborne to take over as interim PM and then potentially have to step down also.

  3. Whatever the SNP do and say is purposed solely to bring about Scottish independence. Nicola Sturgeon has already stated that Britain voting to leave the EU would be grounds for a second Independence referendum regardless of the fact Scotland voted to remain a part of the UK knowing that a referendum was likely and that they would not have a veto over the referendum result. Political instability in London, making a bigger deal about #BREXIT than is necessary,  would only serve to exacerbate the situation north of the border.

  4. Cameron has only just won an historic General Election. The Conservatives have a killer instinct when it comes to removing unsuccessful and lame duck leaders as Hague, IDS and Michael Howard well know, but Cameron is not unsuccessful nor is he likely to become unreasonably unpopular. Cameron is the most successful and popular conservative leader in  generation. It would be insulting to the British electorate to remove him, or for the Prime Minister to quit, so soon after a General Election.

At the core of the Conservatives pitch now and over the last Parliament has been the theme of stability. The message that chaos would reign if Jeremy Corbyn were to be elected. As the most successful centre right party in the world the Conservatives have delivered a great many competent governments, however they have known their fare share of instability and division. Many activists still remember trying to sell the idea of a second Major government in 1997 and just how decisively voters turned against a divided party. I cannot see how removing a popular and competent leader will in any way endear the Conservatives to the great British public. Nor indeed how letting the Referendum campaign devolve into a insult laden mess that focusses more on people than the actual politics will endear either side to voters.

Personally I am more inclined to support an individual like Michael Gove or Liam Fox and I have disagreed with Cameron’s on many occasion but after forming the Coalition, destroying the Liberal Democrats, leading us to a majority and delivering an EU referendum, Cameron deserves the dignity of resigning on his own terms.

1992 -1997

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