#GE2017

 

Some comments on one of the most interesting elections of recent times.

Fun Facts:

Conservatives 42.3% (13,632,914) <- Their highest share of the vote since 1983 and 3rd highest number of votes for any party ever.

Labour 40% (12,874,985) <- Their highest share of the vote since 2001 and their second highest number of votes ever.

Liberal Democrats 7.4% (2,317,772) <- Their lowest share of the vote since 1959

Scottish National Party 3% (977,569) <- Still their second best result ever but also the largest ever drop in support for them (-1.7%)

UKIP 1.8% (593, 852) <- Their worst result since 2001.

Greens 1.6% (525,371) <- A deceptively poor result. Actually their second best result ever.

Democratic Unionist Party 0.9% (292,316) <- Their best ever result with 10MPs.

Sinn Fein 0.8% (238,915) <-  Their best ever result with 7MPs.

Ulster Unionist Party 0.3% (83,280) <- Loosing their 2MPs means they are once again without representation in Westminster.

Social Democratic and Labour Party 0.3% (95,419) <- The first time in a generation the SDLP is not sending any MPs to Westminster.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Conservatives have increased their share of the vote in every election since 1997.

1997 – 30.7% (-11.2%)   2001 – 31.7% (+1%)   2005 – 32.4% (+0.7%)

2010 – 36.1% (+3.7%)    2015 – 36.9% (+0.8%)   2017 – 42.4% (+5.5%)

Turnout is the highest since 1997 and this is the 4th election in a row where turnout has increased.

1997 – 71.3% (-6.4%) 2001 – 59.4% (-11.9%) 2005 – 61.4% (2.0%)

2010 – 65.1% (+3.7%) 2015 – 66.4% (+1.3%) 2017 – 68.7% (+2.3%)

UKIP lost £168,500 in deposits. Only 41 of their 377 candidates retained their deposits.

At 82.4% its the highest two party vote since 1970 and also the first time since that election that the top two parties have scored 40% or over. 

There are 650 seats in the House of Commons. Nominally a Government requires 326 seats to have a majority, however the Speaker does not vote unless a division is tied and Sinn Fein MPs (7) do not take their seats. This means that there are actually 642 voting MPs so the government requires 322 MPs. The Conservatives have 317 MPs and so were only 5 seats away from a majority. There were so many seats with minuscule majorities that if we look at the 5 closest seats the Conservatives were just 146 votes away from securing a majority.

At least we have a strong and stable Monarchy.

1 Kensington – 20
Emma Dent Coad (LAB) – 16,333
Victoria Borwick (CON) – 16,313
2 Perth and North Pertshire – 21
Pete Wishart (SNP) – 21,804
Ian Duncan (CON) – 21,783
3 Dudley North – 22
Ian Austin (LAB) – 18,090
Les Jones (CON) – 18,068
4 Newcastle Under Lyme – 30
Paul Farrelly (LAB) – 21,124
Owen Meredith (CON) – 21,094
5 Crewe and Nantwich – 48
Laura Smith (LAB) – 25,928
Edward Timpson (CON) – 25,880

The MP with the smallest majority in the House of Commons is in the constituency of Fife North East whereStephen Gethins (SNP) fought off his Lib Dem challenger by just 2 votes.

 

 

Some positives.

~ Corbyn didn’t win but did well enough to secure him as Labour leader. The result keeps him out of No.10 but massivley increases the power and influence that the Hard left has in the party. We have aready seen people like Chuka Ummuna and Yvette Cooper falling over themselves to heap paraise on Jeremy and make themselves available for shadow cabinet positions. his newfound power and influence paves the way for him to drag Labour even further to the left which, in theory, should make the Labour party less electable. 

~ The Conservatives have had a brilliant election in Scotland. The SNPs monopoly on power has been broken by the Unionist parties and the idea of a second Independence referendum is off the table, even if the SNP have yet to admit it. With the DUP also having a very good election in Northern Ireland the Union is as safe now as it has been for many a year.

~ Over 80% of the electorate have voted for parties committed to bringing about Brexit. Both the Conservatives and Labour included in their manifestos pledges to leave the Single Market and end free movement. Whether Labour can be trusted on Brexit or not is a matter of opinion but claims that a real/Proper/Clean/Hard Brexit doesn’t have a mandate are completely false. Indeed Hard left socialists are not fans of the EU and with Corbyn’s newfound power and influence. If people wanted to reject Brexit in any meaningful sense then they would have voted for the Liberal Democrats but their share for the vote dropped. There is a very clear mandate for Brexit.

Arlene Foster had been Leader of the DUP since December 2015.

The Democratic Unionist Party.

The DUP may have many disagreeable policies and people but simply looking at the numbers there is not other way for the Conservatives to form a working majority. The SNP and Lib Dems are the only other groups that could get them to 322 and both have ruled out a coalition or any other kind of agreement. It is the Conservatives duty to form as stable a government as possible which leaves the DUP as the only option. Something Gordon Brown recognized in 2010 when he made overtures to them for their support…

‘Hillary Clinton emails: Labour sought DUP election Pact’

http://www.irishnews.com/news/2015/09/02/news/hillary-clinton-emails-labour-sought-dup-election-pact-248668/

‘General Election 2010: DUP now being courted by Labour’

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/election-2010/7683450/General-Election-2010-DUP-now-being-courted-by-Labour.html

‘Labour repeatedly tried to do deals with the DUP’

https://order-order.com/2017/06/11/labour-repeatedly-tried-to-do-deals-with-the-dup/

Both Labour and the Conservatives have worked with the DUP and other Northern Irish Parties to win votes. The Conservatives are used to working with the DUP and this bodes well for a stable government.

The DUP is characterised as a very extreme party, and at points in its history it certainly has been but it can be argued that it has and still is changing. Below is a blog post that argues that quite well.

‘Can you all just calm yourselves down a bit about the DUP?’

https://sluggerotoole.com//06/10/can-you-all-just-calm-yourselves-down-a-bit-about-the-dup/

There is no way that the DUP is going to be able to affect LGBT or abortion rights in the UK. There is no government business planned that they could derail and there is a massive pro LGBT and abortion majority in Parliament. It’s a red herring to make the Conservatives look evil and is just silly, especially when you consider the socially conservative positions Labour’s sister party the Social Democratic and Labour Party (SDLP) hold. Plus, do I even need to point out the hypocrisy of criticising the DUP for their stance when Labouritesare fin with Corbyn with his history of IRA support paid appearances on Iranian TV and support for his “friends” in Hamas and Hezbolla because of the “social justice”?

Essentially a supply and confidence arrangement with the DUP boils down to necessity.

Who doesn’t love Ruth?

Some Thoughts.

~ Empress May now has a regency on her hands. I’m inclined to see who is pulling the strings before I support regicide but it is clear that she cannot be allowed to lead the party for the full term. She no longer has the full confidence of her MPs and will be very limited in what legislation she will be able to get passed. The longer the Parliament lasts the smaller her majority is likely to be, with a number of byelections to be expected, further reducing her ability to get things done. There is also no guarantee that the DUP will keep to a supply and confidence agreement for the full term and a minority government is susceptible to votes of no confidence. This would make another early election likely and the Conservatives are going to want to have a new leader in place well before another election. In my mind it would be best if May saw Brexit through and then made way for a new leader. Removing the Prime Minister whilst Brexit negotiations are ongoing would be a mistake and If there is to be a new leader it cannot be a coronation. The candidates must prove themselves capable of running a campaign and winning the support of party members.

~ The idea that the Conservatives lost because of their position on Brexit is very tenuous (rubbish). If anything Brexit saved the Conservatives from loosing outright. People did not vote for the Liberal Democrats who were banging on about a second referendum and who were making it plain they were the only UK wide anti Brexit party. Labour’s campaign was not about Brexit but about isues like austerity, housing, the NHS and tuition fees. People werent Voting Labour because they were opposed to the Conservatives Brexit plans. They were voting Labout because they were offering a very attractive (if not completely delusional) vision for Britain and Because of Conservative policies on Social care and other areas. People voting conservative were doing so in spite of one of the worst Campaigns, manifestoes and most rigid leaders in our history and id say they were doing so partly because of economic realities, not viewing Corbyn as PM materal but mostly because of Brexit. The Conservatives were the Party of Brexit and Labour the party of everything else. I might be completely wrog but thats how i see it. 

~The arse licking of Corbyn by his former opponents is shameful. No amount of votes will ever change what he is. He is a protester and is good at campaigning, doing well in an election does not make him a capable leader nor does it change his past. He is still as much the terrorist supporting scumbag I always said he was.

 No matter what your opinion, the next few days, months and years are going to be very interesting!

 

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